El Niño

A record El Niño may be forming

Greg Porter, SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE

A freight train of warm water is surging eastward in the tropical Pacific Ocean, kick-starting what is on track to be the strongest El Niño ever observed.

The latest model projections are off the charts. Literally.

If these models prove accurate, it will set off dramatic weather impacts everywhere from California’s coast to the Arctic Ocean.

Most forecast models project Pacific Ocean temperatures to be warmer than the average by at least 3 degrees Celsius by November. For sea surface temperatures across this patch of the central Pacific, even a bump of 1 or 2 degrees Celsius is enough to reshape rainfall, storm tracks and temperatures around the world.

Such an event would surpass the peaks of the 1997-98 and 2015-16 super El Niños, the strongest on record. In those years, ocean surface temperatures were 2.4 and 2.6 degrees Celsius above average, respectively.

Read more at https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/el-nino-weather-pacific-california-22245296.php

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The ocean off California keeps breaking heat records

Hayley Smith, TRIBUNE NEWS SERVICE

An extreme marine heat wave is simmering the Pacific Ocean off the coast of California, and experts are warning that it could affect coastal weather and ecosystems for months.

The ocean heat wave started forming at the end of last year but has worsened in recent weeks, according to readings from the Scripps Pier in La Jolla, which has broken more than 25 daily temperature records this year. The surface water temperature on Wednesday was 68.5 degrees — 7.7 degrees above average for the date. The sea bottom was 67.6 degrees, the hottest April 15 in about 100 years of records.

The heat wave is deep, persistent and widespread, spanning from roughly San Francisco to the Mexican border. Those are “pretty significant indicators that this has both staying power and will have consequences for weeks or months or even seasons to come for Southern California,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California’s Agriculture and Natural Resources.

There are several factors driving the staggering heat, including a unyielding ridge of high pressure straddling Southern California and weaker-than-normal coastal winds, which typically drive upwelling along the coast. Upwelling is when cold, deep ocean water rises to the surface.

But human-caused climate change is undoubtedly pushing the temperatures to new records, Swain said, noting that it takes many times more energy to heat ocean water than it does to heat air. “From an ocean warmth perspective, we are now entering a pretty dramatic period” for this part of the world, he said.

Read more at https://www.pressdemocrat.com/2026/04/16/the-ocean-off-california-keeps-breaking-heat-records/

Climate Change & Energy, Sonoma Coast, ,

It’s like it never left: Another El Niño may be on the way

Henry Fountain, THE NEW YORK TIMES
Less than a year after one of the strongest El Niños on record, forecasters see an increasing possibility that another will begin later this year.
There is no word yet on how strong a new El Niño might be, but even a mild one could affect weather patterns around the world. Among the potential effects are wetter conditions across the southern United States, including Southern California; a drier Midwest; and drought in parts of Africa, Asia and South America.

An El Niño can also influence global temperatures that are already rising because of greenhouse gas emissions. The strong El Niño of 2015-16 contributed to those years’ being the two warmest on record.

An El Niño occurs when warm water in the equatorial Pacific shifts, creating an immense warm zone in the central and eastern Pacific. This adds heat and moisture to the air, releasing energy that affects the high-altitude winds known as jet streams that circle the planet.

Read more at: It’s Like It Never Left: Another El Niño May Be on the Way – The New York Times

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Red crabs deposited on Sonoma Coast by unusual ocean conditions

Mary Callahan, THE PRESS DEMOCRAT
A small bunch of tiny red crustaceans that ought to be hanging out a thousand miles south of here came ashore on Salmon Creek Beach last week, the final remnants, it seems, of a wave of southern species brought north by unusually warm ocean conditions over the past few years.

The 18 pelagic red crabs now living at the UC Davis Bodega Marine Lab are the first ones reported this far north since 1985, when an isolated sighting was recorded in Fort Bragg, according to Eric Sanford, a UC Davis professor of evolution and ecology.

But those who follow life along the Pacific Coast may recall seeing images of the spidery, vermilion-colored creatures as they came ashore by the thousands last year in Monterey and a year prior, when beaches on both the Central Coast and in and around Orange County were covered in blankets of bright red crabs.

At the time, ocean waters were atypically high, a result initially of a phenomenon called “The Warm Blob” and then an ensuing El Niño ocean warming phase of record strength.

The surprise in finding the rare crabs off the Sonoma Coast at this point in time is that the ocean waters have cooled significantly over the past nine months or so, when the latest El Niño dissipated, Sanford said.

“They’re more often found in southern and central Baja, off of Mexico, and it’s very rare to see them even in the state of California,” Sanford said.

Seeing them now “is just another indicator of how strong that El Niño was,” he said.

Read more at: Red crabs deposited on Sonoma Coast by unusual ocean conditions

Sonoma Coast, Wildlife, ,

El Niño not fizzling: More storms barreling toward California

Paul Rogers, SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS
Don’t even think about putting that umbrella away.
El Niño conditions may have peaked in the Pacific Ocean, federal scientists said Thursday, but powerful weather systems — like a new series of storms on track to soak the greater Bay Area over the next five days — have only just begun and will likely continue at least through May.
“This is the time of year when El Niño acts the most reliably,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the climate prediction center for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in College Park, Maryland. “So we would certainly expect the impacts to continue well through the rest of the winter and into the early part of the spring.”
There is a 96 percent chance that El Niño conditions will remain through March, scientists at NOAA and Columbia University reported Thursday, and a 62 percent probability they will continue through May.
Simply put, that means the likelihood of regular storms across California and heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada will continue to be greater this year than in regular years, offering hope that 2016 may finally be the year that the state’s four-year drought — now starting its fifth year — is broken.
But, experts caution, a lot more rain and snow is needed.
Read more at: El Niño not fizzling: More storms barreling toward California – San Jose Mercury News

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El Niño could be the most powerful on record, scientists say

Rong-Gong Lin II & Rosanna Xia, LOS ANGELES TIMES
A key location of the Pacific Ocean is now hotter than recorded in at least 25 years, surpassing the temperatures during the record 1997 El Niño.
Some scientists say their measurements show that this year’s El Niño could be among the most powerful on record — and even topple the 1997 event from its pedestal.
“This thing is still growing and it’s definitely warmer than it was in 1997,” said Bill Patzert, climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge. As far as the temperature readings go, “it’s now bypassed the previous champ of the modern satellite era — the 1997 El Niño has just been toppled by 2015.”
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at Stanford University, called the temperature reading significant. It is the highest such weekly temperature above the average in 25 years of modern record keeping in this key region of the Pacific Ocean west of Peru.
“This is a very impressive number,” Swain said, adding that data suggest that this El Niño is still warming up. “It does look like it’s possible that there’s still additional warming” to come.“
We’re definitely in the top tier of El Niño events,” Swain said.
Temperatures in this key area of the Pacific Ocean rose to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit above average for the week of Nov. 11. That exceeds the highest comparable reading for the most powerful El Niño on record, when temperatures rose 5 degrees Fahrenheit above the average the week of Thanksgiving in 1997.
Read more at: El Niño could be the most powerful on record, scientists say – LA Times

Climate Change & Energy,

California’s Dungeness crab season start in doubt due to toxic algae offshore

Mary Callahan, THE PRESS DEMOCRAT

Though such algal blooms occur with some regularity, the size and density of the one this year has been considered especially alarming. It is believed linked to a band of unusually warm water stretching from Alaska to Mexico that has impacted coastal habitats in myriad ways.

With just a week to go before sport anglers can begin setting traps for Dungeness crab, a persistent bloom of toxic red algae off the Pacific Coast is threatening to disrupt the start of the catch and one of California’s most valuable fisheries.
State officials are awaiting test results they hope will come back by midweek before deciding if they will delay the Nov. 7 recreational start, as well as commercial seasons set to begin a week later, Fish and Wildlife personnel said.
Concern about a powerful neurotoxin called domoic acid produced by certain marine algae is driving the deliberations in California and in other regions, including Washington state, where much of the Dungeness crab fishery was closed through the summer because of high levels of domoic acid found in crustaceans there.
Read more at: California’s Dungeness crab season start in doubt due | The Press Democrat

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