California is about to see a sudden foot of sea level rise from El Niño. Here’s when it hits
Anthony Edwards, SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE
Sea levels along the California coast are expected to rise by a foot as soon as late September, as El Niño-warmed tropical water pushes a slow-moving wave up the coast of North America.
The swell isn’t something seen crashing at a beach but a planetary-scale process known as a Kelvin wave that is triggered by changes in wind at the equator.
“It’s not a wave you can surf,” said Dillon Amaya, an assistant professor of marine science at North Carolina State University. “You’re not gonna be able to see it from your boat, but our instruments will see it as it passes by, like tide gauges.”
The coastally trapped Kelvin wave, as it’s called, originated along the equator and hit the South America coast before turning north at about 6 mph. It raised water levels about 9 to 14 inches (relative to 1993-2025 averages) along the coast of Central America in late August. That surge will hit Cabo in late September and eventually reach San Francisco the first or second week of October.
The Kelvin waves won’t build on each other. Rather, sea level heights and temperatures will remain elevated for weeks, gradually subsiding before the next wave hits.
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